The ACI-World Bank Annual Aviation Symposium will be lead by Charles Schlumberger, Lead Air Transport Specialist, The World Bank who will create an interactive and exciting forum of discussion. He will be joined by senior representatives from airports, investment banks and financial institutions around the world.
Chair: Charles Schlumberger, Lead Air Transport Specialist, The World Bank Mark Barges, Counsel, Linklater, Paris Nicolas Painvin, Head of Criteria, Credit and Research, Global Public Finance and Infrastructure, Fitch Ratings Ian Twinn, Head of Infrastructure Portfolio, IFC Michael Fleming, Partner, The Wicks Group, PLLC Elliott Black, Director, Office of Airport Planning and Programming, Federal Aviation Administration
Airport traffic forecasts are crucial for airport planning and the determination of future capacity requirements. Because infrastructure projects are costly and often disruptive, a data-driven understanding of future demand—such as the expected number of aircraft movements, passenger traffic throughput and air cargo volumes—gives airport planners and investors the necessary information for effective decision-making. “Business as usual forecasts”, in particular, provide stakeholders a valuable simulation for understanding potential demand based on macroeconomic and demographic variables. At the same time, there are several impediments that pose risks to the continued rise in demand, potentially hampering growth prospects over the short- and medium-term. Protectionist policies that retreat from further economic integration and air transport liberalization could have an adverse affect on air transport demand. Amidst this environment of policy uncertainty across many jurisdictions, what are some of the measurement challenges that airport forecasters face in reconciling both the macroeconomic environment with the microeconomic factors facing each individual airport? Chair: Thomas Thessen, Chief Traffic Forecaster, Copenhagen Airports Aram Karagueuzian, Manager, Airport Traffic Statistics and Forecasts, ACI World Ben Brewer, Head of Forecasting, Heathrow Airport Katerina Zalavra, Head, Corporate Information & Market Intelligence Athens International Airport S.A.
This session will include some practical examples and will concentrate on two or three airport projects that are experiencing different kind of challenges (eg lack of support by regulator, or unions) and having them expose the issue. The attendees will then be split into groups to explore possible solutions.
14.00 - 15.05 PRESENTATIONS
Chair: Charles Schlumberger, Lead Air Transport Specialist, The World Bank Albertus Aochamub, Chief Executive Officer, Namibia Airports Company Limited (NAC) TBC, Guatemala City Selahattin Bilgen, Chief Financial Officer, IGA Senior Representative, National Airports Company, Papua New Guinea
15.05 - 15.20 NETWORKING REFRESHMENT BREAK
15.20 - 16.20 INDIVIDUAL GROUP EXERCISE
Master of Exercise: Andreas Papatheodorou, Professor/Consultant, The World Bank Coach: Michael Fleming, Partner, The Wicks Group, PLLC Coach: Alan Robinson, CEO, Smart-Ports Ltd
Chair: Kata Cserep, Vice President, Airports, ICF Angela Gittens, Director General, ACI World Olivier Jankovec, Director General, ACI EUROPE Patti Chau, Regional Director, ACI Asia-Pacific Luis Fonseca de Almeida, Regional Director, ICAO
A panel of experts in the airport industry will discuss the following: The future growth of the airport industry means committing today to significant capital plans with long time-horizons. Investors will look for safe assets and stable income streams, but risk levels are increasing in many regions making financing a challenge. Furthermore, airports around the world face a more competitive business market and have to operate as commercial entities. At the same time, the underlying structure of airports’ business models is changing. Next to traditional PPP, the expanding role of global airport groups change how airports operate.
Chair: Charles Schlumberger, Lead Air Transport Specialist, The World Bank Keith Mason, Professor & Head of Air Transport Management, Cranfield University Dan Wong, Associate Professor and Deputy Head of Department – Transport Studies, Business and Economics Department, Modern College of Business and Science, Oman Mathieu Blondel, Partner, Arthur D Little Jonathan Sandbach, Consultant Economist, Alix Partners Shyamali Rajivan, Director, Global Infrastructure and Project Finance, Fitch Ratings
PART ONE – THEORY (PANEL DISCUSSION)
Airports need to attract both airlines and passengers. Traditional views of airport competition focused on local catchment areas. But today, in an aviation industry that is consolidating to a few airlines that can quickly re-deploy their aircraft to more profitable routes, airports have to compete for airline services on a pan-European basis. As a result, airports are constrained by the buyer power of their customers. Airports do not have thousands of individual customers, but only a dozen or so buyers with significant influence. Further, large hub airports are under pressure from the ‘super connector’ airlines’ hubs in the Gulf as well as hub-bypass. The need to maintain transfer passenger volume is strong driver of charges reductions.
Chair: Harry Bush, Director, H2B2 Ltd Andrew Meaney, Partner, Oxera Consulting LLP Nazzarena Franco, Vice-chair of the ACI EUROPE Economics Committee, Strategy Planning & IR Director, Bologna Airport Warren Mundy, Chief Economist, Australian Airports Association Henrik Mørch, Director, Markets and cases V: Transport, Post and other services, DG COMP Peter Alawani, Chief, Economic Regulatory Framework Section, Air Transport Bureau (ATB), International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) James Wiltshire, Head of Analysis, IATA Economics)
PART TWO - CASE STUDIES (PRESENTATIONS)
What have airports done to ‘win’ new routes? How do airports demonstrate their potential to airlines to gain new air services? What product does an airport need to focus on? How can development of surface connections help an airport compete more broadly? And how will self-connections change airport competition?
Chair: Lars Jønstrup Dollerup, Chief Financial Officer, Copenhagen Airport Francesco Ciarmatori, Managing Partner, Aragon Partners Raffaele Pasquini, Head of Marketing & Business Development, Aeroporti di Roma Mike Brown, Director of Business Intelligence, Greater Toronto Airports Authority Edward Shelswell-White, Principal, ICF
The Economist wrote in November that the battle for Monarch Airline’s slots after its bankruptcy “is a sign of how much the system for allocating them harms competition and consumers.” The newspaper concludes that despite the challenges “the case for change is nonetheless clear.” What is the way forward? How can the true value of slots be found, and how should the value that is created with a slot be allocated?
Chair: Andrew Charlton, Managing Director, Aviation Advocacy Beryl Brown, Head of Competition and Markets, CAA Gunter Heinrich, Head of Airport Slot Management, Fraport Jagoda Egeland, Economist, Infrastructure Planning Lead, International Transport Forum at the OECD John Hanlon, Head of International Government and Industry Relations, Norwegian Diarmuid O'Conghaile, Head of Regulation, Ryanair
Today, 69% of countries have some sort of airport networks and nearly half of the World’s airports belong to airport networks. Airport networks have also come to support equal opportunities in terms of accessibility, connectivity and economic development. By ensuring the sustainable funding of smaller non-economically viable airports, in compliance with ICAO’s guidelines, airport networks have become essential to safeguard and enhance connectivity for all regions concerned - ensuring that all areas remain interconnected without any community being neglected. But the network model is being challenged. What can future regulation do to address concerns and advance the network model?
Chair: Stefano Baronci, Director of Economics & Programme Development, ACI World Jaime Garcia-Legaz Ponce, Chief Executive Officer, Aena Alexander Zinell, Chief Executive Officer, Fraport Greece Management Company Seshadri Suresh, Member (Finance), Airports Authority of India Zouhair Mohamed El Aoufir, Chief Executive Officer, ONDA
Reliance on private investors to provide financing for investment in capacity to meet the future demand will increase as governments step back. What do investors look for in the frameworks for regulation and operations? What do investors want in terms of transparency and consistency. What do investors seek during a privatisation to make it interesting? In sum, it is clear that investor appetite for airports is increasing, and this means that airports and regulatory systems must be considered in depth.
Chair: Cristian Nedelcu, Director Equity Research, UBS Investment Bank Alejandro Gaffner, Partner, Oliver Wyman Michael McGhee, Partner, GIP Nicolas Notebaert, Chief Executive Officer, VINCI Concessions & Chairman, VINCI Airports Andrew Blease, Associate Managing Director, Infrastructure Finance, Moody’s Investors Services Ltd Rafael Echevarne, Chief Executive Officer, MBJ Airport Jerónimo Olleros, Corporate Development Project Director, Ferrovial Aeropuertos
A wide range of regulatory approaches have evolved to address the equally wide range of circumstances in which airports operate. For many years now airports have operated as commercial entities and not as public utilities, and the shift of the airline industry globally away from one of fragmented flag carriers to one of regional powerhouses and global alliances means that airports face fewer customers. Regulators have to be careful to not move too quickly but also adjust to the actual situation and its likely development. What are regulators doing around the world to adapt to the changing market and what does this mean for the range of regulatory approaches?
Chair: Dan Elliott, Board Director and Founder, FRONTIER Economics Ltd Christophe Dussart, Deputy Head of Unit, European Commission Andrea Camanzi, President, Italian Transport Regulation Authority Kurt Daels, Chair of the ACI EUROPE Economics Committee & Head of Regulation, Contracts & Charges, Brussels Airport Cathy Mannion, Commissioner, Irish Aviation Regulator Salvatore Sciacchitano, Executive Secretary, European Civil Aviation Conference Martin Thelle, Partner, Managing Director, Copenhagen Economics