SESSION ONE: FROM DOWNSIDE TO UPSIDE RISKS – A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE OF AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND
Forecasts of air transport demand are crucial for the determination of aircraft fleet, future airport capacity requirements and overall planning across the air transport value chain. Intrinsically linked to economic and demographic variables, a data-driven understanding of potential demand and various scenarios gives aviation stakeholders valuable insights for effective decision making.
Based on ACI’s data and forecasts, global airport passenger traffic is estimated to reach 8.8 billion in 2018 and is poised to double in less than 20 years. Over the long term, it is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 4.1%, reaching 20.9 billion by 2040. Air cargo has also experienced an important resurgence in recent years in tandem strengthened trade and industrial production. However, with a shift away from liberalized economic policies, how can we quantify the downside risks to air transport demand amidst sanctioned trade wars and ongoing geopolitical tensions? On the other hand, based on “business as usual” traffic projections, as we look to the upside, what are some of the supply-side considerations, capacity constraints and bottlenecks that we face?
Chair: Patrick Lucas, Head of the Airport Business Analytics Unit, ACI World
David Owens, Global Head of Standards, CAE
James Wiltshire, Head of Policy Analysis, IATA Economics
Jan Hogrefe, Director, Market Analysis, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Claire Leleu, Forecasting Manager, EUROCONTROL