SESSION TWO: Airport traffic forecasting – Reconciling uncertainty with business as usual
Airport traffic forecasts are crucial for airport planning and the determination of future capacity requirements. Because infrastructure projects are costly and often disruptive, a data-driven understanding of future demand—such as the expected number of aircraft movements, passenger traffic throughput and air cargo volumes—gives airport planners and investors the necessary information for effective decision-making. “Business as usual forecasts”, in particular, provide stakeholders a valuable simulation for understanding potential demand based on macroeconomic and demographic variables. At the same time, there are several impediments that pose risks to the continued rise in demand, potentially hampering growth prospects over the short- and medium-term. Protectionist policies that retreat from further economic integration and air transport liberalization could have an adverse affect on air transport demand. Amidst this environment of policy uncertainty across many jurisdictions, what are some of the measurement challenges that airport forecasters face in reconciling both the macroeconomic environment with the microeconomic factors facing each individual airport?
Chair: Thomas Thessen, Chief Traffic Forecaster, Copenhagen Airports
Aram Karagueuzian, Manager, Airport Traffic Statistics and Forecasts, ACI World
Ben Brewer, Head of Forecasting, Heathrow Airport
Katerina Zalavra, Head, Corporate Information & Market Intelligence Athens International Airport S.A.